Northeast Asia Security Initiative to win the campaign of ‘Make America Great Again’
Dong Yon Kim: N.Korea Analyst of Chosun News Press, Former ROK Air Force Officer
Whilst S.Korea fights with Japan over the economy and their past history, Sino-Russia alliance is getting stronger and its power also shared with N.Korea which ended up a trilateral alliance in the region. China and Russia intruded S.Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) last July 23rd; it was a first time to intrude KADIZ together. Russia Air Force brought their top-notch AEW&C aircraft, Beriev A-50 which carries a dish-shaped antenna capable of surveillance over 300 miles. Intruded gang of aircraft from Russia and China stayed in S.Korea Airspace for 24 minutes and out bounded after the warning fire from S.Korea fighter jets.
Only 2 days after Sino-Russia intrusion to S.Korea, N.Korea launched its short-range tactical missiles without notice. Two incidents could be viewed as separate but there could be some possibility of relations. Based on the presumed theory, What If Russia shared its collected information from the A-50 with N.Korea before the launch of missiles? It could be useful to acknowledge the combat-readiness of S.Korea and its location of ISR assets. It is widely known fact among Intelligence experts, Russia shares information with China and China shares information with N.Korea.
In recent years, Sino-Russia strengthens their relations especially in terms of military. Last year China has participated in Russia-driven grand scale war simulation exercise, Vostok. Through Vostok, Russia let the world know that not only the US is capable of delivery of 2 different wars at the same time but also Russia can do the same. During the exercise, China sent its most up to date intelligence naval ship to monitor the entire exercise mechanism. In June, Russian Naval ship and the US Naval ship, USS Chancellorsville had near-collision incident in the sea of Philippines. After the incident, Russia blamed the US for the entire matter and announced the location of the incident as the South China Sea whereas the US claimed the Philippines Sea. Such action and claim have a concrete reason for the support of China. Recently combined air intrusion to S.Korea is no different, China and Russia intruded a specific area of S.Korea ieodo and Dokdo. These two areas are controversial for the region. Ieodo is close to the South China Sea that there have been some disputes between China and Japan over Senkaku Island, Russia also has an on-going dispute with Japan over Kurils. Dokdo has a long history of the dispute between S.Korea and Japan, therefore, recent intrusion reinitiated fight between Korea and Japan; both scrambled their Air force to respond to the intrusion.
Since 2007, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) linked their cooperation and bolstered Sino-Russia alliance. SCO and CSTO have been the security power source of the region continuously expended their muscles and spread their ideology of peace via Wanshou dialogue. Xi Jinping’s henchman Song Tao is the leading power of this new peace engagement to the world. This ideology gradually hypnotizes and dragged the feet of US alliance in the region, S.Korea. While Sino-Russia exploits their strategy over Northeast Asia, the US also expanded its operational theater to Indo-Pacific but India still participated in the China-driven SCO. Modi India visited Bishkek for the SCO summit 2019.
George Bush administration executed PSI in early 2000. John Bolton is known to be the first proposer of the PSI. PSI stands for Proliferation Security Initiative which empowered the naval police action of America and its allies to deter the rise of the axis of evils: N.Korea, Iran, Iraq. PSI stopped 15 scud missiles of N.Korea to Yemen. With the PSI, the US was able to strengthen the alliance and boasted American-justice domestically. If Trump administration remembers this from Bolton, it can win the election.
Currently, Trump administration often criticized by the sluggish negotiation with N.Korea. Such criticism also comes from his ‘MAGA’ supporters. Kim Jong Un is not helping Trump’s popularity with the constant launch of missiles. In order to achieve a breakthrough from this sticking point, the Trump administration must look for a solution from the precedent, the PSI. S.Korea and Japan allies of the US have become more difficult to unite over economic war and historical issues. S.Korea even considers destroying the GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) with Japan as an act of revenge for Tokyo’s economic sanction to Seoul. Russia’s recent withdrawal from the INF(Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty) caused the situation even worse in the region. The US faced a deep dilemma in Northeast Asia. It is time to lead and bolster power in the region with the new security initiative. This new initiative could be the cornerstone of a regional alliance like NATO.
The initiative must include short-term and long-term plans to gradually strengthen the security of the region and this plan should not end within Trump’s second run but endure even afterward. Short-term should include enhanced surveillance and monitoring over N.Korea which three countries (US-KOR-JPN) security chiefs promptly react to any security event in the region. If N.Korea fires missiles or any provocation happens, three countries security members react as a harmonized body through the initiative. This may require the establishment of International Counter-Communism Center (ICCC) which is a similar concept to DNI’s NCTC. Based on the ICCC’s consensual tactical response three countries can take action against the event of provocation.
The Long term plan of the Initiative should include two subjects: Human rights and Economy. Former can gradually ban the human right abuses and inhuman activities in communist countries in the region. This initiative can be coordinated with the United Nations and get support from the international community. Latter is the establishment of a financial institution in Northeast Asia which can cooperate with the US Treasury & FRB, World Bank, and the IMF. This economy initiative could collaborate with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). When the initiative makes a good progression then the US, Korea, and Japan can create a trilateral alliance which can be the NATO or SEATO like alliance in Northeast Asia, NEATO. This new trilateral alliance, NEATO (Northeast Asia Treaty Organization) can gradually include Australia, and New Zealand to empower the Indo-Pacific Theater.
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